Intel projects flat adjusted EPS for Q1 2026 as it reports 2025 results

Intel has issued a restrained outlook for the first quarter of 2026, projecting revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of about $0.00, according to the company’s earnings release covering fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results. The guidance underscores the challenges Intel expects early in 2026 as it works through supply constraints, competitive pressures, and the multi-year effort to rebuild manufacturing leadership.

In its published business outlook table, Intel also provided GAAP expectations that imply a tougher picture on a reported basis, including a GAAP diluted loss per share of approximately $(0.21) at the midpoint assumptions. The company’s guidance includes gross-margin ranges, with non-GAAP gross margin expected around the mid-30% range, reflecting continuing cost and mix pressures during a period of heavy investment.

The earnings release positioned the outlook as part of a broader transition plan, with Intel emphasizing operational execution and the ramp of advanced process nodes. Investors and industry watchers have been focused on whether Intel can deliver manufacturing improvements quickly enough to regain share in key segments and to make its foundry strategy credible at scale.

Intel’s forecast matters beyond its own stock because the company sits at the intersection of data-center demand, PC replacement cycles, AI infrastructure spending, and U.S. industrial policy around domestic semiconductor capacity. A weak or cautious near-term outlook can ripple into supplier expectations and into broader sentiment about enterprise hardware spending.

The company said it would discuss the results and outlook in a public webcast and that supporting materials would be made available through its investor relations site. Such calls are often where analysts probe the drivers behind guidance—particularly how much of the softness is attributable to product timing, supply availability, pricing, or end-market demand.

For now, Intel’s Q1 2026 outlook sets a conservative baseline: revenue slightly below what bulls would prefer and profitability constrained in the near term. The next key question for investors is whether Intel can demonstrate improvement later in 2026 through stronger shipments, better margins, and clearer evidence that its manufacturing roadmap is translating into competitive products and external foundry wins.